Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.287211 1.364247 1.444543 1.534682 1.633289 1.738149 1.858438
2026-01-25 1.185685 1.296500 1.417471 1.560132 1.724806 1.910192 2.136489
2026-02-01 1.089804 1.215712 1.357340 1.529927 1.736592 1.978769 2.288058
2026-02-08 1.009482 1.143023 1.296664 1.488649 1.725229 2.011480 2.390834
2026-02-15 0.957919 1.098851 1.264243 1.475596 1.742904 2.076041 2.533226
2026-02-22 0.921714 1.069820 1.246793 1.477660 1.776829 2.160303 2.704718
2026-03-01 0.878381 1.029174 1.211992 1.454530 1.775196 2.196025 2.811035
2026-03-08 0.832101 0.982362 1.166684 1.414594 1.747825 2.193833 2.861850
2026-03-15 0.802839 0.955358 1.144772 1.403260 1.756915 2.240454 2.984525
2026-03-22 0.790347 0.948818 1.148351 1.425148 1.811570 2.353077 3.213250
2026-03-29 0.769900 0.930977 1.136105 1.424567 1.834161 2.420298 3.377359
2026-04-05 0.757506 0.922949 1.136164 1.440360 1.880210 2.524119 3.607937
2026-04-12 0.738353 0.905985 1.124445 1.440406 1.905250 2.600863 3.807219
2026-04-19 0.728663 0.901243 1.129014 1.463614 1.965833 2.736963 4.122846
2026-04-26 0.701988 0.872562 1.099471 1.436091 1.947804 2.746621 4.216153
2026-05-03 0.673561 0.840562 1.064132 1.398441 1.911924 2.724464 4.248510
2026-05-10 0.655429 0.822043 1.046895 1.386526 1.915136 2.766408 4.404125
2026-05-17 0.642867 0.810737 1.039298 1.388410 1.939874 2.845711 4.639870
2026-05-24 0.623761 0.789732 1.017139 1.367287 1.926342 2.858032 4.743653
2026-05-31 0.600862 0.762812 0.985686 1.330784 1.885927 2.820607 4.741661
2026-06-07 0.587046 0.748292 0.971654 1.320416 1.887827 2.858071 4.899861
2026-06-14 0.582956 0.747352 0.977206 1.340434 1.941086 2.991622 5.281148
2026-06-21 0.573111 0.737896 0.969914 1.339903 1.959386 3.061903 5.531726